Post by mhbruin on Jan 20, 2021 12:33:10 GMT -8
California, Here We Come
We play the last in our string of crappy teams. Normally we would expect a blowout. However, this has seemed to be an unusually unpredictable year. And UCLA rarely wins a game easily.
However there are two stats which seem like they could be decisive. Stay tuned.
CALIFORNIA'S RECORD
California was looking like the second-worst team in the league, only beating Washington at home by 6 points. Their best win was a 2-point win over San Francisco also at home. And we beat them by 20 earlier in the year.
They lost to Pepperdine, WSU, and twice to Oregon State.
Then they go to Salt Lake City and beat Utah. It is by far their best win of the season. And they do it without Matt Bradley.
This is all the more impressive because it was a road game. You may not think much of home court without fans, but teams have been playing much better at home. Going into the Cal game, Utah was 5-2 at home and 0-3 on the road. (Cal is 5-2 at home and 1-6 on the road with their only road win being the Utah game.)
And if you think Utah isn't that good, remember that we struggled to beat them by 2 at Pauley.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -10
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 77% of the time.
Torvick: UCLA wins 81% of the time
The computers and the W/L record show that UCLA is a much better team.
OFFENSE (Ranks in the Pac-12)
UCLA is better than Cal in every offensive stat. Cal is not Washington-bad, but they are not a great offensive team.
California is not a high-scoring team. A big part is that they don't attempt a lot of shots. They seem to play at a very slow pace.
They don't shoot badly overall, but their 3-point percent isn't very good.
I think a key stat is that UCLA is the best 3-point shooting team in the Pac-12.
DEFENSE
Cal is a crappy defensive team. We aren't all that great, but they are worse in everything except steals.
How does Cal match up with the best 3-point shooting team in the Pac-12 The are the worst 3-point defense in the Pac-12. Game, set, and match.
OTHER FACTORS
Once again, we should have a significant advantage on the boards.
And our A/TO ratio is better than theirs.
PLAYERS
9 Players have played a lot. However, it is not clear how deep they want to go. Several players have played more minutes because other players have missed game, most notably Matt Bradley. However, they went 9 deep against Utah, so they likely will against us.
At this point we don't know whether Matt Bradley will be available.
Beteley and Foreman are their best outside threats and most of their shots are 3's. 68% of Beteley's shots and 72% of Foreman's are 3's. Neither seems like much of a threat from inside the arc. We need to defend them on the arc.
Kelly, OTOH is entirely an inside guy.
Antecevich is a wild card. He can go off for 21 in a game or only score 2.
CONCLUSION
This is a familiar refrain. We are better on offense, on defense, and on the boards. That looks like an easy win.
Our 3-point shooting should be the difference. We are the best 3-point shooting team in the league. California is the worst team in the league at defending the 3.
On the other side of the ball, California shoots a lot of 3's and UCLA is very good at defending the arc.
The other big edge for the Bruins is on the boards.
The win over Utah, notwithstanding, I think the Bruins get to 8-0 in the Pac-12. We should light it up from the outside and beat them on the boards.
We beat them by 20 at home in December. In our win, we shot 57% on 3's and had 9 more rebounds. (This was with Chris Smith who scored 21, but they had Matt Bradley at full strength.) I don't think the change of venue should matter that much.
We play the last in our string of crappy teams. Normally we would expect a blowout. However, this has seemed to be an unusually unpredictable year. And UCLA rarely wins a game easily.
However there are two stats which seem like they could be decisive. Stay tuned.
CALIFORNIA'S RECORD
California was looking like the second-worst team in the league, only beating Washington at home by 6 points. Their best win was a 2-point win over San Francisco also at home. And we beat them by 20 earlier in the year.
They lost to Pepperdine, WSU, and twice to Oregon State.
Then they go to Salt Lake City and beat Utah. It is by far their best win of the season. And they do it without Matt Bradley.
This is all the more impressive because it was a road game. You may not think much of home court without fans, but teams have been playing much better at home. Going into the Cal game, Utah was 5-2 at home and 0-3 on the road. (Cal is 5-2 at home and 1-6 on the road with their only road win being the Utah game.)
And if you think Utah isn't that good, remember that we struggled to beat them by 2 at Pauley.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -10
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 77% of the time.
Torvick: UCLA wins 81% of the time
| CALIFORNIA | UCLA | |
| NET | 176 | 33 |
| KenPom Rank | 144 | 26 |
| Adjusted O Rank | 133 | 8 |
| Adjusted D Rank | 169 | 91 |
| Sagarin Rank | 143 | 20 |
| Record | 6-8 | 11-2 |
| SOS | 86 | 65 |
The computers and the W/L record show that UCLA is a much better team.
OFFENSE (Ranks in the Pac-12)
| CALIFORNIA | UCLA | |||
| Scoring Offense | 11 | 68.5 | 3 | 77.8 |
| FG Attempted | 12 | 52.6 | 8 | 58.5 |
| FG Percent | 4 | 45.6% | 3 | 46.6% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 6 | 33.6% | 1 | 38.6% |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 2 | 22 | 9 | 19 |
| FT Percent | 11 | 3 | ||
| FT Attempts Per Game | 8 | 7 | ||
| Assists Per Game | 8 | 13.1 | 3 | 15.5 |
| Fewest Turnovers | 9 | 3 |
UCLA is better than Cal in every offensive stat. Cal is not Washington-bad, but they are not a great offensive team.
California is not a high-scoring team. A big part is that they don't attempt a lot of shots. They seem to play at a very slow pace.
They don't shoot badly overall, but their 3-point percent isn't very good.
I think a key stat is that UCLA is the best 3-point shooting team in the Pac-12.
DEFENSE
| CALIFORNIA | UCLA | |||
| Scoring Defense | 10 | 7 | ||
| FG Percent Defense | 12 | 45.9% | 7 | 43.2% |
| 3-Pt Percent Defense | 12 | 40.4% | 4 | 31.0% |
| Steals Per Game | 9 | 5.5 | 11 | 4.9 |
| Blocks Per Game | 12 | 11 |
Cal is a crappy defensive team. We aren't all that great, but they are worse in everything except steals.
How does Cal match up with the best 3-point shooting team in the Pac-12 The are the worst 3-point defense in the Pac-12. Game, set, and match.
OTHER FACTORS
| CALIFORNIA | UCLA | |||
| Rebound Margin | 9 | -0.4 | 2 | 6.7 |
| Offensive Rebounds | 12 | 7.3 | 4 | 11.2 |
| Defensive Rebounds | 8 | 7 | ||
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 9 | 1.0 | 2 | 1.4 |
Once again, we should have a significant advantage on the boards.
And our A/TO ratio is better than theirs.
PLAYERS
9 Players have played a lot. However, it is not clear how deep they want to go. Several players have played more minutes because other players have missed game, most notably Matt Bradley. However, they went 9 deep against Utah, so they likely will against us.
At this point we don't know whether Matt Bradley will be available.
| Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | |
| Matt Bradley | 17 | 45% | 32% |
| Ryan Beteley | 11 | 39% | 38% |
| Makale Foreman | 11 | 37% | 37% |
| Andre Kelly | 10 | 62% | 0% |
| Grant Antecevich | 9 | 45% | 33% |
| Jarred Hyder | 7 | 44% | 24% |
| Joel Brown | 5 | 50% | 35% |
Beteley and Foreman are their best outside threats and most of their shots are 3's. 68% of Beteley's shots and 72% of Foreman's are 3's. Neither seems like much of a threat from inside the arc. We need to defend them on the arc.
Kelly, OTOH is entirely an inside guy.
Antecevich is a wild card. He can go off for 21 in a game or only score 2.
CONCLUSION
This is a familiar refrain. We are better on offense, on defense, and on the boards. That looks like an easy win.
Our 3-point shooting should be the difference. We are the best 3-point shooting team in the league. California is the worst team in the league at defending the 3.
On the other side of the ball, California shoots a lot of 3's and UCLA is very good at defending the arc.
The other big edge for the Bruins is on the boards.
The win over Utah, notwithstanding, I think the Bruins get to 8-0 in the Pac-12. We should light it up from the outside and beat them on the boards.
We beat them by 20 at home in December. In our win, we shot 57% on 3's and had 9 more rebounds. (This was with Chris Smith who scored 21, but they had Matt Bradley at full strength.) I don't think the change of venue should matter that much.