Post by mhbruin on Jan 15, 2021 11:10:48 GMT -8
If you don't want to read the whole preview, let me get to the bottom line. UCLA is good. Washington is bad. UCLA will win.
Two years ago, the Huskies won the Pac-12 and Mike Hopkins was the Pac-12 Coach of the Year for the second straight year. Now they are arguably the worst Power 6 team in the country. What happened?
Hopkins' teams have always played great defense, but they had trouble scoring. However, now they are combining bad defense with bad offense and are getting killed on the boards. That's a recipe for disaster and that's exactly what this season has been for UW.
WASHINGTON'S RECORD
Washington has won one game, against Seattle U, who isn't very good. They lost at home to 3-6 Montana.
They get blown out a lot.
BUT, they only lost by 3 to Oregon when they held them to 38% shooting, but gave up 18 offensive rebounds.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -15.5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 91% of the time.
Torvick: UCLA wins 94% of the time.
Washington has played a pretty tough strength of schedule, and they have played crappy offense and defense against those teams.
BTW, Washington is not the worst Power 6 team according to KenPom. Both Oregon State and Kansas State rank lower.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
That is one UGLY picture for UW. The old saying about the Washington Senators was "Washington. First in War. First in Peace. Last in the American League. Today it would be "Last in the Pac-12". (The Senators are now the Minnesota Twins.)
They don't score. They shoot horribly. They can make free throws, but they don't get to the line. They don't share the ball well. Yuck!
DEFENSE
Here's the kindest thing I can write. Their defense isn't as bad as their offense. It's not as good as ours. It's not good. But it's not ridiculously bad.
OTHER FACTORS
More bad numbers. They are terrible on the boards, particularly their own. We should have an offensive rebounding field day.
Their A/TO ratio is terrible.
PLAYERS
You might think that the problem is that Washington has no talent. It doesn't seem to be the issue. They have a 5-star and five 4-star players. I have heard it said they have the wrong talent. Lots of athletes. Not enough shooters.
It is hard to tell how deep Washington goes, since Hopkins keeps changing the lineup looking for one that works. These have been his starters lately.
Quade Green is a very talented player, even if the numbers don't reflect it. He just doesn't have much support.
Bey is the one 3-point threat.
Other than that it is hard to find much to say about the roster, except I liked Tshonis more before he cut his hair.
CONCLUSION
There's not much to say about this game. The first-place team is playing the last-place team in the league. We are hitting on all cylinders. They may not have any cylinders.
This is going to be a hard game to get motivated to play. That may be the biggest risk. But it's hard to see how this isn't a blow-out, even if we are not 100% on our game.
Two years ago, the Huskies won the Pac-12 and Mike Hopkins was the Pac-12 Coach of the Year for the second straight year. Now they are arguably the worst Power 6 team in the country. What happened?
Hopkins' teams have always played great defense, but they had trouble scoring. However, now they are combining bad defense with bad offense and are getting killed on the boards. That's a recipe for disaster and that's exactly what this season has been for UW.
WASHINGTON'S RECORD
Washington has won one game, against Seattle U, who isn't very good. They lost at home to 3-6 Montana.
They get blown out a lot.
BUT, they only lost by 3 to Oregon when they held them to 38% shooting, but gave up 18 offensive rebounds.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -15.5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 91% of the time.
Torvick: UCLA wins 94% of the time.
| WASHINGTON | UCLA | |
| NET | 251 | 27 |
| KenPom Rank | 147 | 24 |
| Adjusted O Rank | 185 | 9 |
| Adjusted D Rank | 125 | 72 |
| Sagarin Rank | 154 | 24 |
| Record | 1-10 | 10-2 |
| SOS | 30 | 63 |
Washington has played a pretty tough strength of schedule, and they have played crappy offense and defense against those teams.
BTW, Washington is not the worst Power 6 team according to KenPom. Both Oregon State and Kansas State rank lower.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
| WASHINGTON | UCLA | |||
| Scoring Offense | 12 | 63.7 | 3 | 77.6 |
| FG Percent | 12 | 39.3% | 3 | 47.1% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 12 | 27.9% | 1 | 38.0% |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 22 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| FT Percent | 2 | 73.6% | 4 | 73.2% |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 12 | 15 | 5 | 22 |
| Assists Per Game | 12 | 9.6 | 4 | 15.3 |
| Fewest Turnovers | 10 | 5 |
That is one UGLY picture for UW. The old saying about the Washington Senators was "Washington. First in War. First in Peace. Last in the American League. Today it would be "Last in the Pac-12". (The Senators are now the Minnesota Twins.)
They don't score. They shoot horribly. They can make free throws, but they don't get to the line. They don't share the ball well. Yuck!
DEFENSE
| WASHINGTON | UCLA | |||
| Scoring Defense | 11 | 81 | 2 | 67 |
| FG Percent Defense | 9 | 45.9% | 6 | 44.0% |
| 3-Pt Percent Defense | 9 | 34.7% | 5 | 32.4% |
| Steals Per Game | 5 | 7.0 | 11 | 4.9 |
| Blocks Per Game | 5 | 10 | ||
| Fewest Fouls Committed | 3 | 8 |
Here's the kindest thing I can write. Their defense isn't as bad as their offense. It's not as good as ours. It's not good. But it's not ridiculously bad.
OTHER FACTORS
| WASHINGTON | UCLA | |||
| Rebound Margin | 11 | -9.4 | 5 | 5.7 |
| Offensive Rebounds | 4 | 11.4 | 6 | 10.2 |
| Defensive Rebounds | 11 | 7 | ||
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 12 | 0.7 | 4 | 1.4 |
More bad numbers. They are terrible on the boards, particularly their own. We should have an offensive rebounding field day.
Their A/TO ratio is terrible.
PLAYERS
You might think that the problem is that Washington has no talent. It doesn't seem to be the issue. They have a 5-star and five 4-star players. I have heard it said they have the wrong talent. Lots of athletes. Not enough shooters.
It is hard to tell how deep Washington goes, since Hopkins keeps changing the lineup looking for one that works. These have been his starters lately.
| Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | ||
| Quade Green | Senior | 15 | 39% | 27% |
| Jamal Bey | Junior | 8 | 46% | 48% |
| Erik Stevenson | Junior | 7 | 33% | 35% |
| Nate Roberts | Sophomore | 6 | 55% | --- |
| Hameir Wright | Senior | 5 | 29% | 16% |
Quade Green is a very talented player, even if the numbers don't reflect it. He just doesn't have much support.
Bey is the one 3-point threat.
Other than that it is hard to find much to say about the roster, except I liked Tshonis more before he cut his hair.
CONCLUSION
There's not much to say about this game. The first-place team is playing the last-place team in the league. We are hitting on all cylinders. They may not have any cylinders.
This is going to be a hard game to get motivated to play. That may be the biggest risk. But it's hard to see how this isn't a blow-out, even if we are not 100% on our game.