Post by mhbruin on Jan 13, 2021 10:46:20 GMT -8
Prior to the season I wrote, "Without Elleby, it will be hard to avoid being the worst team in the Pac-12. Fortunately, they will have Oregon State in the league. Cougar fans should hibernate after football season. If there is a football season."
Then they started the season with 8 straight wins. Was I wrong? Perish the thought!
WSU'S RECORD
However, you need to look at those 8 wins.
Since then they lost to Arizona in 2 overtimes, beat California who didn't have Matt Bradley, and lost by 15 to Stanford playing without 2 starters.
The Arizona result shows they can be dangerous. Every team is dangerous.
However, I still think they are one of the worst teams in the league. And this season that is saying a LOT!
METRICS
Line: UCLA -10
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 89% of the time.
Torvick: UCLA wins 83% of the time.
Look at that strength of schedule!
The defensive numbers may be genuine. They held Arizona to 37% shooting. But Stanford shot 49% against him.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
We are better in every offensive category. That's because they are bad in every category.
They shoot a lot of 3's, but they don't shoot them well. They don't shoot 2's well either.
They get to the line a lot, but they don't shoot FT's well.
They don't have a lot of assists, since they play a lot of 1-on-1 ball.
And they turn the ball over a lot.
Another problem is they don't have that many assists. They probably play too much 1-on-one offense, and they don't share the ball.
This team has too many players who want to be the big scorer.
DEFENSE
Statistically they are the best team in the Pac-12. However, their terrible OOC schedule has to make you question this. Let's look at how teams with a pulse did against them.
That's excellent defense against Pac-12 teams. They did great defending the 3.
Why did Stanford do so well against them? WSU had no answer for Oscar da Silva inside, and they couldn't even stop 6-11 Lukas Kisunas, who had a career-high 6 points on 3 of 3 shooting.
That seems to hold the key to success. Get the ball to Riley and don't shoot a lot of 3's.
OTHER FACTORS
When you miss a lot of shots, you get a lot of defensive rebounds.
Their A/TO ratio is terrible.
PLAYERS
WSU goes 8 deep, but their scoring is mostly done by 4 players. I don't think any of the others would play much on a quality Pac-12 team.
The big question is the status of Noah Williams. Noah Williams took a bad fall during the Stanford game. His status on Thursday is questionable at this time. If he doesn't go, the starters will be Bonton and four freshman.
Whether Williams plays or not, after Bonton, they are VERY young.
Here are the four primary scorers.
Bonton is their leading scorer, but that is mostly because he takes over 25% of their shots. He can get hot, but he is NOT a good shooter.
Bonton is their primary ball-handler, but has a mediocre 1.1 A/TO ratio.
Noah Williams is a good player. If he doesn't go they will miss him a lot.
6-10 freshman Abogidi is going to be a star in the Pac-12. He leads them in rebounding, has 2 blocks per game, and can score from anywhere on the floor. He is probably their best player already as a freshman.
6-6 freshman Jakimovski takes 68% of this shots from beyond the arc. You would much rather have him take a 2-point shot. He only makes 22% of them.
After than, here are the guys who will play significant roles. Jackson will start and Bamba will start if Williams is out.
Volodymyr Markovetskyy is 7-1, 270 who is big. He is also know for having "yy" in his name. Other than that, he is still big.
CONCLUSION
We are better at most things than WSU. They are good at defense, but terrible on offense.
They have no depth and their interior defense is nothing to write home about. If Williams can't go or is less than 100%, they will need to rely on their bench, which is an ugly prospect.
Bonton is already the leader for the Issac Bonton Award, given to the player with the worst shot selection in the Pac-12. If he feels like he has to take up the slack, he could get even worse. He could go nuts on us, but he is more likely to shoot them out of the game.
Meanwhile, we don't want to leave Jakimovski alone on the 3-point line. NEVER!!!
If we eschew the three and pound it inside, we should win easily.
Then they started the season with 8 straight wins. Was I wrong? Perish the thought!
WSU'S RECORD
However, you need to look at those 8 wins.
- Texas Southern (1-5)
- Eastern Washington (1-4)
- Oregon State (4-4)
- Idaho (0-9)
- Portland State (1-4)
- Montana State (3-3)
- Prairie View A&M (1-4)
- Northwestern State (1-12)
Since then they lost to Arizona in 2 overtimes, beat California who didn't have Matt Bradley, and lost by 15 to Stanford playing without 2 starters.
The Arizona result shows they can be dangerous. Every team is dangerous.
However, I still think they are one of the worst teams in the league. And this season that is saying a LOT!
METRICS
Line: UCLA -10
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 89% of the time.
Torvick: UCLA wins 83% of the time.
| WSU | UCLA | |
| NET | 99 | 31 |
| KenPom Rank | 120 | 28 |
| Adjusted O Rank | 242 | 11 |
| Adjusted D Rank | 44 | 70 |
| Sagarin Rank | 118 | 25 |
| Record | 9-2 | 9-2 |
| SOS | 261 | 49 |
Look at that strength of schedule!
The defensive numbers may be genuine. They held Arizona to 37% shooting. But Stanford shot 49% against him.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
| WSU | UCLA | |||
| Scoring Offense | 9 | 70.3 | 5 | 75,9 |
| FG Percent | 11 | 40.6% | 4 | 46.2% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 9 | 31.7% | 4 | 35.9% |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 2 | 23 | 9 | 19 |
| FT Percent | 10 | 69.4% | 7 | 76.4% |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 2 | 24 | 5 | 23 |
| Assists Per Game | 11 | 11.5 | 4 | 14.9 |
| Fewest Turnovers | 11 | 4 |
We are better in every offensive category. That's because they are bad in every category.
They shoot a lot of 3's, but they don't shoot them well. They don't shoot 2's well either.
They get to the line a lot, but they don't shoot FT's well.
They don't have a lot of assists, since they play a lot of 1-on-1 ball.
And they turn the ball over a lot.
Another problem is they don't have that many assists. They probably play too much 1-on-one offense, and they don't share the ball.
This team has too many players who want to be the big scorer.
DEFENSE
| WSU | UCLA | |||
| Scoring Defense | 10 | 7 | ||
| FG Percent Defense | 1 | 34.2% | 8 | 42.1% |
| 3-Pt Percent Defense | 1 | 26.2% | 3 | 29.0% |
| Steals Per Game | 8 | 6.4 | 11 | 4.5 |
| Blocks Per Game | 8 | 11 | ||
| Fewest Fouls Committed | 5 | 3 |
Statistically they are the best team in the Pac-12. However, their terrible OOC schedule has to make you question this. Let's look at how teams with a pulse did against them.
| FG Percent | 3-point Percent | |
| Arizona | 41% | 25% |
| California | 35% | 24% |
| Stanford | 49% | 18% |
That's excellent defense against Pac-12 teams. They did great defending the 3.
Why did Stanford do so well against them? WSU had no answer for Oscar da Silva inside, and they couldn't even stop 6-11 Lukas Kisunas, who had a career-high 6 points on 3 of 3 shooting.
That seems to hold the key to success. Get the ball to Riley and don't shoot a lot of 3's.
OTHER FACTORS
| WSU | UCLA | |||
| Rebound Margin | 4 | 5.9 | 2 | 6.2 |
| Offensive Rebounds | 3 | 11.4 | 5 | 11.1 |
| Defensive Rebounds | 1 | 6 | ||
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 11 | 0.8 | 3 | 1.3 |
When you miss a lot of shots, you get a lot of defensive rebounds.
Their A/TO ratio is terrible.
PLAYERS
WSU goes 8 deep, but their scoring is mostly done by 4 players. I don't think any of the others would play much on a quality Pac-12 team.
The big question is the status of Noah Williams. Noah Williams took a bad fall during the Stanford game. His status on Thursday is questionable at this time. If he doesn't go, the starters will be Bonton and four freshman.
Whether Williams plays or not, after Bonton, they are VERY young.
Here are the four primary scorers.
| Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | ||
| Issac Bonton | Senior | 18 | 36% | 29% |
| Noah Williams ?? | Sophomore | 12 | 45% | 40% |
| Efe Abogidi | Freshman | 11 | 50% | 48% |
| Andrej Jakimovski | Freshman | 8 | 35% | 39% |
Bonton is their leading scorer, but that is mostly because he takes over 25% of their shots. He can get hot, but he is NOT a good shooter.
Bonton is their primary ball-handler, but has a mediocre 1.1 A/TO ratio.
Noah Williams is a good player. If he doesn't go they will miss him a lot.
6-10 freshman Abogidi is going to be a star in the Pac-12. He leads them in rebounding, has 2 blocks per game, and can score from anywhere on the floor. He is probably their best player already as a freshman.
6-6 freshman Jakimovski takes 68% of this shots from beyond the arc. You would much rather have him take a 2-point shot. He only makes 22% of them.
After than, here are the guys who will play significant roles. Jackson will start and Bamba will start if Williams is out.
| Class | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | FG % | 3-Point Percent | |
| Dishon Jackson | Freshman | 12 | 4 | 3 | 43% | 0% |
| T J Bamba | Freshman | 12 | 3 | 2 | 40% | 25% |
| Aljaz Kunc | Junior | 17 | 6 | 4 | 41% | 33% |
| Volodymyr Markovetskyy | Sophomore | 14 | 4 | 3 | 61% | 0% |
| Myles Warren | Junior | 13 | 3 | 1 | 35% | 21% |
| Carlos Rosario | Freshman | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volodymyr Markovetskyy is 7-1, 270 who is big. He is also know for having "yy" in his name. Other than that, he is still big.
CONCLUSION
We are better at most things than WSU. They are good at defense, but terrible on offense.
They have no depth and their interior defense is nothing to write home about. If Williams can't go or is less than 100%, they will need to rely on their bench, which is an ugly prospect.
Bonton is already the leader for the Issac Bonton Award, given to the player with the worst shot selection in the Pac-12. If he feels like he has to take up the slack, he could get even worse. He could go nuts on us, but he is more likely to shoot them out of the game.
Meanwhile, we don't want to leave Jakimovski alone on the 3-point line. NEVER!!!
If we eschew the three and pound it inside, we should win easily.
