Post by mhbruin on Jan 1, 2021 11:48:10 GMT -8
Here we have two teams that have played comparable schedules, so we can compare stats with a little more confidence.
Line: UCLA is favored by 1.5 points
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 49% of the time.
METRICS
The computers like Colorado. Some by a little. We both play good offense, but they are better on defense.
Colorado's 2 loses are to #7 Tennessee and to a better-than-expected Arizona team. Both losses came on the road. They have 2 wins over teams with winning records SC and Kansas State. (Kansas State has the worst loss for a major-conference team to Division 2 Fort Hayes State. It wasn't close.)
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
We play at a similar pace. They shoot the 3 better and they shoot 2 more per game than we do. They are the best in the nation at free throws, but they don't get to the line all that much.
Basically, offense looks like a wash.
DEFENSE
They are better at defense than we are. This could decide the game.
Only Arizona has scored more than 70 against them and the held SC to 62. SC was the highest-scoring team in the league.
OTHER FACTORS
We are a bit better on the boards.
PLAYERS
This is a typical Colorado team that goes 9 deep, although Dallas Walton didn't play against SC. They have balanced scoring with a bunch of guys who can hit the 3.
They are led by McKinley Wright, Jeriah Horne, and Evan Battey. Horne is shooting 48% from 3, and they have 3 other guys who are shooting over 40%.
Wright does everything well Battey is only shooting 18% on 3's, but is a beast inside.
The key will be to defend Battey inside and the rest of the team at the 3-point line.
CONCLUSION
Traph has a nice preview on BZ. Here
In some ways, these teams are similar. No real stars who dominate the game. No player who takes over a game. Just team ball. Lots of good college players, and nobody who screams out "first-round pick".
They play better defense. We are better on the boards. We are at home, which still matters.
The computers and Vegas see this game as a toss-up. I don't see any reason to argue with them. It should be a real ball-burner.
Line: UCLA is favored by 1.5 points
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 49% of the time.
METRICS
| Colorado | UCLA | |
| NET | 25 | 76 |
| KenPom Rank | 22 | 32 |
| Adjusted O Rank | 19 | 12 |
| Adjusted D Rank | 11 | 68 |
| Sagarin Rank | 28 | 33 |
| Record | 7-2 | 6-2 |
| SOS | 82 | 96 |
The computers like Colorado. Some by a little. We both play good offense, but they are better on defense.
Colorado's 2 loses are to #7 Tennessee and to a better-than-expected Arizona team. Both losses came on the road. They have 2 wins over teams with winning records SC and Kansas State. (Kansas State has the worst loss for a major-conference team to Division 2 Fort Hayes State. It wasn't close.)
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
| Colorado | UCLA | |
| Scoring Offense | 6 | 7 |
| FG Percent | 6 | 4 |
| 3-Pt Percent | 2 | 4 |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 2 | 8 |
| FT Percent | 1 | 4 |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 9 | 7 |
| Assists Per Game | 5 | 2 |
| Fewest Turnovers | 3 | 2 |
We play at a similar pace. They shoot the 3 better and they shoot 2 more per game than we do. They are the best in the nation at free throws, but they don't get to the line all that much.
Basically, offense looks like a wash.
DEFENSE
| Utah | UCLA | |
| Scoring Defense | 2 | 10 |
| FG Percent Defense | 6 (39.7%) | 10 (42.5%) |
| 3-Pt Percent Defense | 8 (31.8%) | 5 (30.1%) |
| Steals Per Game | 11 | 10 |
| Blocks Per Game | 11 | 10 |
They are better at defense than we are. This could decide the game.
Only Arizona has scored more than 70 against them and the held SC to 62. SC was the highest-scoring team in the league.
OTHER FACTORS
| Utah | UCLA | |
| Rebound Margin | 6 | 3 |
| Offensive Rebounds | 7 | 5 |
| Defensive Rebounds | 9 | 7 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 4 | 2 |
We are a bit better on the boards.
PLAYERS
This is a typical Colorado team that goes 9 deep, although Dallas Walton didn't play against SC. They have balanced scoring with a bunch of guys who can hit the 3.
They are led by McKinley Wright, Jeriah Horne, and Evan Battey. Horne is shooting 48% from 3, and they have 3 other guys who are shooting over 40%.
Wright does everything well Battey is only shooting 18% on 3's, but is a beast inside.
The key will be to defend Battey inside and the rest of the team at the 3-point line.
CONCLUSION
Traph has a nice preview on BZ. Here
In some ways, these teams are similar. No real stars who dominate the game. No player who takes over a game. Just team ball. Lots of good college players, and nobody who screams out "first-round pick".
They play better defense. We are better on the boards. We are at home, which still matters.
The computers and Vegas see this game as a toss-up. I don't see any reason to argue with them. It should be a real ball-burner.